donchayo's Blog

$380 BILLION QE Since September 2012

$380 BILLION a month bailout for Wall Street and the US economy will still implode thank you Mr. President.

"For those who don't understand, the unlimited 1-3 yr bond purchases by the ECB as Draghi promised in July 2012 is also known as QE, or qualitative easing. Japan and the US can QE all they want, since they are "one sovereign nation," however, as Italian elections will prove this weekend, the Eurozone is a group of 27 nations, all with different agendas, cultures, and national interests. Again, I have written that is Italy goes leftist or communist, the EUR USD and global markets will suffer."

I posted this last week, and I have been monitoring the Italian bond markets and Italian MIB for some time now. The MIB and the Spanish IBEX are the key to the failures of the Eurozone and how to trade the US dollar during the London session. Christopher Carrion had named my finding the "K-Wave" which is a highly profitable short of the EUR USD based on Fibonacci percentages based on the US dollar, Nikkei, EUR USD, US Dollar index, Italian and Spanish bond markets, and many other calculations that I would figure out on a daily basis and kept recorded.

I made the mistake, however, by posting that Berlusconi was leftist, when Berlusconi is a right of center in Italian politics. I also wrote that European governments are continuing to follow a trend of creating coalition governments, where neither a right of left wing party has a vast majority. This will continue to create uncertainty in EUropean markets, and uncertainty causes the US dollar to go even higher.

The US dollar blew through the 81.50 base because of Italian election uncertainty. On the 1 year chart, (http://www.bloomberg.com/quot e/DXY:IND/chart) the rise of the US dollar, even with the US Federal Reserve crashing the US currency at a cost of $380 BILLION since September 2012, the chart is impressive. The US Federal Reserve has not yet stopped the Infinite QE program, only stated that it would. I have charts showing the US dollar wave patterns that I calculated over a year ago while in college, please feel free to review my charts and studies.

Thank everyone for their support.

Sincerely,

David E. Kiehlemier

Unlimited QE By Bernanke . 300 000 000 000 Dollars Since September 2012
(I apologize for the length, but it is Monday, and a lot to review)
OK, quick look at the US markets and we have the Dow above the Andrew's Pitchfork that I drew over a week ago and posted on Facebook. As you see in the chart, the Andrew's Pitchfork started on November 16, 2012 , with the Dow rallying from the low of 12 471, and has been rallying since then. In December, I also posted if the Dow stayed above 13 600, (the yellow line) it would continue rallying. I did not expect the Dow to keep rallying above the yellow line, but the moves by the Bank of Japan have continued to keep the global markets rallying, with Japan pushing unlimited QE until Japanese inflation hit's 2%. Also, add that the US Federal Reserve added $40 BILLION a month more in Infinite QE two weeks ago. That makes $180 BILLION of QE by December, and next month the US Federal Reserve will have pushed over 300 000 000 000 of QE.
On the financial media, only Rick Santelli is warning the rest of investors the consequences of constant QE under the Obama administration. Hyperinflation of food prices in emerging markets will cause political instability that mirrors the Arab Spring, which was caused by wheat prices. I am waiting for rice to explode in value.
Dow Wave Patterns:
As long as the Dow stays above the purple Andrew's Pitchfork, I will continue to remain bullish on US markets. Since January 25, 2012, the Dow has created a base at 13 875, hitting 13 875 more than 5 times since then. Dow remaining above 13 875 I remain bullish, below, I am bearish.
European Markets:
I mainly focus on the PIIGS, or Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain, when I look at the European markets. Spanish unemployment is still above 20% and the macro data coming out of Europe last week was opposite of the positive statement that European Central Bank President Draghi from Davos:
"DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - The "positive contagion" on financial markets is not yet feeding into the economy at large but the euro zone should see recovery in the second half of the year, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Friday."
A look at the Spanish IBEX (http://www.bloomberg.com/quot e/IBEX:IND) will show the IBEX is bullish, but look at the one year chart. We are about to experience the repeat of the wave patterns from October 26, 2011 to May 31, 2012 in the Spanish IBEX, since Spain has done nothing to resolve it's economic crisis, and now Spanish PMM Rajoy has stated Spain will not be asking for a bailout. This has caused Spanish 10 yr bonds to rally from January 11, 2013 and Spanish 10 yrs are above 5% now. I am looking for 5.5% before Spanish markets starts freefalling 200 to 300 pts a day.
A review of the 3 yr chart of Spanish 10 yr bonds will show you why Spanish 10 yrs are so important to understand (http://www.bloomberg.com/quot e/GSPG10YR:IND/chart) when it comes to global markets. Every time the Spanish 10 yrs have rallied above 5.5%, the global markets have experienced a major sell off, and the US dollar has overheated. The US dollar overheating then causes the EUR USD (Euro vs USDollar) to sell off as well.
Italy is also a problem, as much as Spain, but I will explain that tomorrow.

David Kiehlmeier

Mali, China, the West, and Uranium .....

I am watching Mali play Ghana in the African CUp and I remembered the Mali fubol team could be a well financed team if Mali could be stabilized and the civil war ended.

I have been writing for almost 5 years on Blackplanet.com how the US needs soft power investment in Africa in order to curtail the Chinese Communist Party soft power investment. The use of Islamofacist terrorisim to scare the West to support French forces is only smoke and mirrors. The real reason the West does not want to lose Mali is because Mali could be self sufficient with the uranium it has.

For the last 500 years, the West has used civil wars in Africa to keep destability in Africa so that the countries of Africa could be economically raped. Now with the Chinese Central Bank having over 300 billion US dollars in it's reserves, Africa now can look to China for investment, instead of the West.

David Kiehlmeier

http://mg.co.za/article/2012-0 3-30-uranium-a-minefield-for-m alians/

"How Americans are Getting Screwed ...."

The IMF is funded by the Americans, around 20% of it. So every time the IMF (International Monetary Fund) bails out a country in the Eurozone, or anywhere in the world, like Vietnam, then Americans are forced to bail them out as well.

The reason why the ECB (European Central Bank) will not change interest rates, is because the IMF will be reluctant then to push LTRO's. LTRO's (Long-term refinancing operations) are cheap money from central banks to other banks that is financed by the average citizens. If the ECB raises interest rates, then the IMF will not push LTRO's.

These LTRO's have been abused in the Eurozone, and not been used what they were meant for, which was to clean up toxic debt from the balance sheets.

Why is this important? Tomorrow the ECB President Draghi is to make a speech, and that can determine if this rally in US markets will last beyond this week.

David Kiehlmeier

"How to Collapse Spain"

Two days ago I posted on Facebook that Spain was forcing the Social Security Pension fund to purchase the toxic debt of Spain, and that Spain has asked for a bailout, but has not been approved by the ECB as of yet.

Spanish 10 yr bonds are currently at 5.09, but have been on an uptrend since January 3, 2012. What I am waiting for is the SPanish 10 yrs to go above 5.65 before I get excited. Spain has not had any OMT's (1 - 3 yr bonds) purchased by the ECB, as Draghi had promised on July 26, 2012.

Spain may have asked for a bailout, but the conditions for a bailout and approval are yet to get through the EUropean politics, and the infighting between Germany and French politicians and banks should not be ignored.

If Spain does not get a bailout soon, Spain could get locked out of the bond markets, which will drive the SPanish 10 yrs above 7% and collapse Spain, and especially the Spanish Social Security Pension funds, which I am studying today.

This is the article that gave me the idea of how vulnerable Spain is, and whether Spanish pension funds can be hedged against to profit from SPain collapsing financially.

"But with unemployment now above 25% of the workforce and fewer wage earners paying in, the Social Security System is about ?3 billion in deficit, according to government estimates."

Siempre Futbol

David Kiehlmeier

http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB1000142412788732337450457821 7384062120520.html

you can read more of my writings at (http://www.blackplanet.com/yo ur_page/blog/index.html?profil e_id=34082739&profile_name =donchayo&user_id=34082739 &username=donchayo)

Classic Media Manipulation of Global Markets

"The supervision plan is the first - and probably the easiest - step towards a Eurozone banking union designed to shore up confidence, resuscitate cross-border bank lending and bring down painfully high borrowing costs for banks in peripheral Eurozone banks."

'The package will still require approval from the EU parliament and the German Bundestag, a process that could take several months in total.'

(Quoted by:By Alex Barker in Brussels)

This has happened often in the EUrozone, falsified or hype information that creates a rally in the EUR USD, which weakens the US dollar and rallies the EUro. Under closer examination, it is realized that the process of a European banking Union, like the United States has, is still, far from being a reality.

News about the ESM has caused the Euro to rally earlier this year, only to be found to be false later. Reuters has manipulated global markets before with release of falsified or incomplete news, like June 14, 2012, which I wrote about in Blackplanet.com

"Central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the outcome of Greek elections on Sunday causes tumultuous trading, G20 officials told Reuters."

This so called "news" by Reuters this afternoon, that the central banks are going to coordinate efforts to save the Euro was not "news", but manipulation of the markets by the financial media. Remember Sunday when the EUR USD rallied because Spain got a "bailout ?" That is how the financial media portrayed it.

"So, Sunday, I started studying further and found out that there was NOT a Spanish bailout, but an agreement by banks to bail out Spain. It was an agreement, but the funding for the Spanish bailout will not come until next month with the ESF. And that is if the ESF even comes together."

http://www.blackplanet.com/you r_page/blog/index.html?profile _id=34082739&profile_name=donc hayo&user_id=34082739&username =donchayo&m=June&y=2012